Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
