It was two months prior that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
Per Opta, twice all season has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
